Time

Tuesday, Nov 6

Wednesday, Nov 7

Thursday, Nov 8

8-12

Introduction (0.5 h) COMET, Timofeyeva & Harrison

Logistics, Short Intro defining course scope and objectives, Prereqs, Evaluations, etc.

ENSO (1.5 h) Kousky

-definitions,

- impacts

- physics

- predictability

Ensemble Climate Predictions (1h) Johansson

- identify feature of medium range climate variability

- Define ensemble approach

- explain why an ensemble approach is appropriate at all ranges

What is Climate? (0.5h) Kann

Introduce difference between climate and weather, components of the climate systems

Oceanic forcing (1h) Alexander

explain the relationships between tropical SST’s and the extratropical atmosphere including Oceanic and Atmospheric bridge

- Thermohaline Circulations and its climate impacts

- Oceanic dynamics of PDO, description, impact and physic, incl predictability

CPC Climate Prediction Tools (1.5h) Halpert

- discuss the models and tools available at CPC

- scientific basis of CPC forecasts, including the three important drivers: ENSO, trend, and soil moisture

Climatology (1h) Kousky

- Define seasonal climate variability

 NAO / AO (0.5h) Livezey

NOA/AO description,

impact, physics (incl predictability)

Seasonal Predictions Lab (1h) Halpert

- explain terminology used in CPC discussions (some of these should be covered in Section 3)

Climate Anomalies and Bird’s Eye View of Climate Variability (1.5 h) Livezey

- Climate Anomalies

- Teleconnections

- Main Climate Variability phenomena

Intraseasonal Climate Variability (0.5h) Berry

-explain the relationships between (tropical) convection and the location and strength of the jet stream

- the adjustment of the  atmosphere to forcing 

- how different locations of this forcing affect the resultant temperature and precipitation patterns

- MJO description, impact, physics

- familiarity with Global Synoptic-Dynamic Model

12-13

Lunch

Lunch

Lunch

13-17

Statistical Climatology (2.5h) lecture & exercise Livezey & Timofeyeva

- review of the statistics used in local climatology, local climate products, and CPC discussions

- introduce the basic tools used in climate diagnosis and variability: time series, pdfs, scatter plots, linear regression, PCA

 

 Intraseasonal Climate Variability (1h) Berry cont.

Hydrology and climate interactions (1h) Noel

- Hydrologic forcing and Climate Variability

- Science of the monthly and seasonal hydrologic predictions

- Best Example for Incorporating Climate Predictions into Hydrologic Operations

Monsoons (1h)  Horsfall

- natural climate variability of monsoons

- impact

- predictability

Drought (1h) Kann

- natural variability of drought

- predictability

 - impact

Climate Change (1.5h) Livezey

- review observed climate change (CO2, T, sea ice, etc.)

- Forcing and feedback mechanisms

- Uncertainties (especially  in model scenarios)

Monitoring Climate Variability Lab (1.5 h) Halpert

-  Utilize available CPC and CDC web information to monitor state of climate variability of the following phenomena: ENSO, MJO, NAO/AO, Soil Moisture, Drought, and trends

Course Summary (1 h) Kann

-Concluding Remarks

- Reinforcing Course Important Messages

- Guidance to Operational Utilization of Climate Variability Information

17:00

Reception at COMET (1.5 h)

Free Time

Free Time