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"The NWS National Precipitation Verification Program": Brett McDonald, COMET Postdoctoral Fellow (Camp Springs)

Final Report

The National Weather Service (NWS) and other hydrometeorological organizations have recently identified precipitation estimates and forecasts as important items for emphasis and improvement. A critical aspect of improving precipitation forecasts is verification. Currently, a variety of organizations perform routine precipitation forecast verification only for those forecasts applicable to that organization's needs. Within the NWS, precipitation forecasts are issued globally/regionally/locally by numerical weather predication and stastical models, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, River Forecast Centers, and Weather Forecast Offices. This progam has been created to perform verification for all steps in the end-to-end precipitation forecast process.

Tasks specific to this project included:

More information about work conducted during and after the fellowship period is available from the paper:

Charba, Jerome P., Reynolds, David W., McDonald, Brett E., Carter, Gary M. 2003: Comparative Verification of Recent Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in the National Weather Service: A Simple Approach for Scoring Forecast Accuracy. Weather and Forecasting : Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 161183.